ASX Market Wrap: China's stimulus plan sends ASX miners soaring

Good Evening,

Welcome to Equity Espresso’s Market Recap. A jam-packed day to start the new week with news of stimulus from China helping lift markets. Also in the news was a gold merger, a broker upgrade for a fallen angel and a big insider buy. Also, we’ve made some tweaks to include a new, dedicated ASX Company Announcement section later in the newsletter. Let’s jump in.

Market Wrap

Markets started the new week positively, helped by a lift on Wall Street on Friday and China's announcement of a “special action plan” to stimulate its economy.

The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 64.4 pts. (+0.83%) to finish at 7,854.10, helped by a lift in the Materials (+1.97%) and Energy (+1.72%) sectors, while Health Care (-0.27%) was the biggest detractor.

Mining companies rose after China announced plans to stimulate its economy amid weak consumer demand, although the plan lacked financial details. More on that later.

Iron ore prices rose above US$102.50/t, hitting a two-week high, with Fortescue (+4.18%) and BHP Group (+2.41%) being the biggest benefactors. Mineral Resources (11.57%) shares got a boost following a UBS broker upgrade to a ‘Buy’. See our new Broker section later in this newsletter for their analysis and updated price target.

There was some M&A action in the markets today. Tyro Payments (+1.71%) is looking to buy out its rival, Smartpay (+47.17%). Meanwhile, gold producers Ramelius and Spartan Resources are looking to merge. You can check out all the details of these deals in our new ASX Company Announcement section later in the newsletter.

ARB Corporation (+1.68%) also hit our radar today. Managing Director Andrew Brown and Chairman Roger Brown both bought just under $1 million worth of shares in the company. Our Insiders section of the newsletter has the top 5 ‘insider’ buys and sells in the last 14 days.

China's State Council has launched a "special action plan" to stimulate domestic consumption amid weak consumer demand following COVID-19 disruptions and a property market slump. The plan focuses on increasing household incomes, establishing childcare subsidies, and implementing rural housing reforms.
The initiative includes measures to:

• Guarantee workers' vacation rights

• Increase pension standards

• Boost tourism through expanded visa-free travel.

In seemingly related news, China’s Money Supply M1 increased to ¥112,445 billion in January from ¥67,095 billion in December 2024 - a 67.6% increase. M1 is the total amount of the most liquid forms of money in China's economy. It includes physical currency and demand deposits (checking accounts). The sharp rise suggests a significant amount of money being injected into the economy. ⬇️ 

Thanks to everyone who responded to last Friday’s poll. Looks like most people are holding or starting to make small buys into the market. Results below:

Q: Pulse Check - What are you doing with your portfolio right now?

1. Holding - 41%

2. Buying small amounts - 30%

3. Selling almost everything - 13%

4. Trimming - 8%

5. Back the truck up - 8%

Outlook

Wall Street futures for Monday’s session are lower, with the NASDAQ (-0.60%) and S&P (-0.53%) expected to drop by similar levels at the market open. U.S. retail sales will be reported tonight, with analysts expecting a 0.6% month-over-month increase for February.

Key central bank meetings will take place in Japan (Tuesday), the U.S. (Wednesday), and the U.K. (Thursday) this week. The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely hold its fed funds rate at 4.25-4.5%.

Wall Street

U.S. stocks surged on Friday as investors sought bargains following a volatile week, with the S&P 500 (+2.13%) and Nasdaq (+2.61%) posting their largest single-day percentage gains since November 6.

Semiconductor stocks outperformed with a 3.3% increase. Every sector finished higher, with Technology (+3.03%), Energy (+2.81%), Financials (+2.30%), and Consumer Discretionary (+2.14%) all gaining 2% or more.

Despite Friday's rebound, all three major indexes recorded their fourth consecutive weekly losses—a pattern not seen since August last year.

Ulta Beauty (+13.7%) rose after exceeding fourth-quarter expectations with earnings of $8.46 per share on $3.49 billion in revenue, significantly outpacing analyst projections of $7.12 EPS and $3.46 billion in revenue.

Semtech (+21.1%) jumped after posting better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter earnings of 40 cents per share (versus 32 cents expected) on $251 million revenue and providing strong current-quarter guidance.

DocuSign (+14.8%) shares surged after beating earnings expectations, with revenue of $776 million vs. $761 million forecast and EPS of $0.86 against $0.85 expected. The company credited the company's new AI-enabled platform, DocuSign IAM, for helping stabilise performance.

Economic Data

• Chinese New Home prices in 70 cities dropped by 4.8% YoY in February 2025, easing from a 5.0% decline in January.

• New Zealand Services PMI fell to 49.1 in February 2025 from 50.4 in January, signalling the services sector slipped back into contraction.

• U.K. GDP contracted 0.1% MoM in January 2025, following a 0.4% growth in December 2024, worse than market expectations of a 0.1% gain.

• U.S. Consumer Sentiment plunged to 57.9 in March 2025, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in February and well below forecasts of 63.1, according to preliminary estimates.

   

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Company Spotlight

❗️ASX Company Announcements

A snapshot of some of the companies out with news today

• Tyro Payments has confirmed issuing a non-binding offer to acquire 100% of Smartpay Holdings for NZ$1.00 per share, mainly using Tyro shares plus some cash. The companies are in preliminary discussions, with no certainty of a transaction.

• Spartan Resources and Ramelius Resources have confirmed media reports of a merger, valuing Spartan shares at $1.78 each—an 11.3% premium to the last closing price. Under the deal, Ramelius will acquire all Spartan shares for 25¢ cash plus 0.6957 new Ramelius shares per Spartan share, implying a $2.4 billion market cap.

• Paladin Energy has received an exemption from the Canadian government, allowing it to maintain a controlling interest in its Patterson Lake South uranium project.

• Navigator Global Investments has agreed to acquire a 23.5% stake in 1315 Capital, a U.S. healthcare private equity firm, for up to US$70.5 million.1315 Capital manages over US$1 billion in assets. The deal includes US$27.5 million in deferred payment subject to performance criteria.

• Latitude Group has appointed Guillaume Leger as its new chief financial officer, starting in June. He replaces Paul Varro, who left the company in December after 16+ years.

• Opthea shares have been suspended pending an announcement about the Phase 3 clinical trial results for neovascular macular degeneration treatment. Trading will resume following the market announcement or by March 19, whichever comes first.

• EBOS Group has denied a report in The Australian's Dataroom column claiming it was pursuing an acquisition of the Real Pet Food Company.

Headlines

🦘 Local News

• Newcastle Coal Infrastructure Group has signed a long-term power purchase deal with Lightsource BP. The agreement involves supply from the Upper Hunter region's 585-megawatt Goulburn River solar farm. From 2030, the Kooragang Island facility will be powered by 100% renewable energy.

• Woodside Energy has signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement with Chinese state-owned conglomerate China Resources, delivering approximately 600,000 tonnes annually starting in 2027.

🌎️ Around The Globe

• Apple plans to introduce live translation for AirPods in iOS 19, enabling users to hear translated speech through their earbuds while their iPhones play translations aloud when they respond.

• Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly in talks to sell HomeServices of America to real estate giant Compass. HomeServices operates through multiple brands with over 5,400 employees and 820 brokerage offices.

• Canada's boycott of U.S. products is expanding beyond alcohol to various food items, with grocery chains removing American goods and expecting sales declines.

• iPhone and Android users will soon be able to exchange end-to-end encrypted RCS messages, thanks to updated RCS specifications. This Messaging Layer Security (MLS) protocol update will enable cross-platform encryption between different providers for the first time.

• Klarna has publicly filed its F-1 prospectus for its U.S. IPO. While share quantities and price ranges weren't disclosed, Klarna aims to raise at least $1 billion at a $15 billion valuation, following a 24% revenue increase in 2024.

• PepsiCo is reportedly in advanced negotiations to acquire the healthier soda brand Poppi for over $1.5 billion, according to Bloomberg News.

🤖 All About AI

• China's securities regulator says it will intensify the monitoring of false market information, which has been made easier with A.I. tools creating misleading content that manipulates stocks by tempting investors with promises of quick wealth.

• Deepseek requires A.I. development staff to surrender passports, limiting international travel, though whether this is a company policy or government mandate remains unclear.

• Google is replacing Assistant with AI-powered Gemini, promising a more personalised and interactive experience with existing apps and services.

Brokers

📊 Broker Deep Dive

East Coast Research initiates coverage on Cannindah Resources (ASX: CAE) with a 12-month target price of A$0.180, representing a 149.7% upside from the current A$0.072 share price.

“The company's Mt Cannindah Project features a high-grade, fully permitted JORC-compliant resource of 14.5 Mt at 1.09% CuEq with open-pit potential. Recent drilling results, including 82m @ 2.32% Cu, demonstrate expansion potential.”

“Under experienced leadership, including Tom Pickett and newly appointed Tony Rovira, CAE is advancing this flagship project and the high-grade Piccadilly Gold Project. With a strong financial position following a $5 million capital raise, CAE can benefit from accelerating copper demand amid global electrification trends.”

You can access the report below:

Daily Broker Moves

1. UBS has lowered its target price for Mineral Resources from $33 to $28.60 after adjusting for haul road repairs, FY25 guidance downgrades, grade discounts, and a lower cost of capital. Despite ongoing concerns, UBS has upgraded its rating from Sell to Buy, citing the stock's 67% decline and overly pessimistic market pricing for iron ore and spodumene.

Broker Forecasts

• Oxford Economics has reduced global GDP growth forecasts by just 0.1 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025 and 2026 despite recent tariff tensions. This limited adjustment reflects two factors: China's strong Q4 2024 performance, which boosted its 2025 forecast to 4.6%, and expectations that U.S. tariff increases will be less severe than threatened.

• Citi forecasts metallurgical coal prices to exceed US$200/t in the second half of 2025 (currently $173.50), driven by new tariffs on U.S. coal that will redirect trade toward Australian volumes.

Markets

Commodity Prices

Bonds

Forex

Global Health Check

Tariff Watch

🚢 The T Word

Can’t keep up with all the tariff news?
We’ll provide you a round-up of the latest on the tariff ‘wars’

Weekend Updates:

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that following the imposition of tariffs on major trading partners, the United States could engage in bilateral trade negotiations with other countries.

• Walmart and Home Depot are adopting various strategies to cope with tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, including negotiating price concessions from suppliers, shifting production out of China, and adjusting consumer prices.

• BMW has warned that global tariffs will impact its profits due to E.U. duties on Chinese electric vehicle imports and U.S. aluminum tariffs. The company says the trade measures will affect BMW's automotive margin.

Friday, March 14:

• President Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits if the E.U. does not remove its 50% tariff on American whiskey.

• ​The E.U. announced that it plans to impose a 50% tariff on American whiskey, including bourbon, effective April 1, 2025.

• Chinese authorities summoned executives from Walmart to express concerns over the company's reported requests for suppliers to lower wholesale prices to offset U.S. tariffs.

• Australian trade and tourism minister, Don Farrell, will speak with a White House representative this weekend about Trump's 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, maintaining he "has not given up" on securing an Australian exemption.

Check out our Friday newsletter to see all the tariff updates from March.

A Little Extra

 ⬇️ Short Data

Top 10 shorted stocks on the ASX - as of March 11

The Insiders

Director buying and selling.
On-market and Off-market trades only.
Net Buy/Sell positions from February 27 - March 12

DISCLAIMER: Please note that the information provided in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to encourage you to buy/sell assets or make economic decisions. We strongly recommend conducting your own research before making any investment.