Good Evening,

Welcome to Equity Espresso’s Daily Market Recap. There will be no newsletter tomorrow or Monday due to the public holidays, but we’ll be back on deck next Tuesday. We hope everyone has a great Easter! Let’s jump in.

Local Market

Markets ended both the day and week on a positive note, with the S&P/ASX200 index rising 60.2 points (+0.78%) to close at 7,819.10, defying Wall Street, where major indices declined by over 1%. Today’s gain was driven primarily by the Energy sector (+3.82%) and gold miners, while Health Care (-0.13%) was the only sector to finish in the red.

Energy (+3.82%) stocks rebounded after yesterday’s fall, thanks to a lift in Brent and Crude prices, with Woodside Energy (+3.88%) and Ampol (+7.70%) leading the way, while Santos (+2.91%) rose after it lifted production output to 21.9 mmboe per day.

The price of gold hit fresh records overnight, crossing US$3,350/oz, showing no signs of letting up. Northern Star Resources (+1.09%), Evolution Mining (+1.20%) and Sandfire Resources (+3.87%) were some of the day’s best performers.

Company updates continued to roll in today. Challenger (+10.21%) was one of the day’s biggest movers, despite reporting a 5% fall in FUM and narrowing its FY25 normalised Net Profit guidance to $450 million and $465 million.

Australian employment rose by 32,200 in March after February's 52,800 decline, with unemployment increasing to 4.1% from 4.0%. This resilient labour market, which fell short of the 40,000 jobs forecast, remains crucial for inflation management. While the RBA maintained its 4.1% cash rate in April, recent Trump administration tariffs have disrupted markets, prompting predictions of a May rate cut, possibly even as large as 50 bps. Markets are still fully pricing in a 25bps rate cut when the RBA meets on May 20. Expectations of a 50bps have reduced in the past few days, down to 70%.

Overnight, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated the Fed would await more economic data before adjusting interest rates, while warning that Trump's tariff policies risk pushing inflation and employment away from central bank goals. Powell told Chicago's Economic Club they're "well positioned to wait for greater clarity" and denied the existence of a "Fed put" for market downturns.

Tariff Update

• China says it's open to trade talks with the U.S., but with conditions: the Trump administration must show respect, curtail disparaging remarks from cabinet members, maintain a consistent position, and address Chinese concerns regarding sanctions and Taiwan.

• President Trump reported "big progress" after meeting with Japanese officials seeking to avoid his threatened higher tariffs. Trump called it "a Great Honour" in a Wednesday social media post following the 50-minute meeting, which he personally attended alongside US Treasury and Commerce Department representatives. While the talks didn't immediately halt tariffs, Japan's lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa confirmed a second round of negotiations is planned for later this month.

DISCLAIMER: Please note that the information provided in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. It is not intended to encourage you to buy/sell assets or make economic decisions. We strongly recommend conducting your own research before making any investment.